A Memo From Chris
Weather forecasting for business is like teetering on a cliff. Can the weather forecast really be trusted? There’s so much money on the line – there may even be lives and livelihoods on the line. There’s a lot of pressure on us to be right because it really, really matters to you.
Back in the early 1980’s, an airline I was forecasting for needed to know when they could takeoff from Las Vegas. A snowstorm had shut down Minneapolis-St. Paul airport and they wanted to be one of the first planes to land when the airport reopened. The flight plans needed to be filed and the two and a half hour flight needed to be timed just right. We back-timed everything so there’d be enough time to plow the runways. The plane took off, the snow ended shortly afterwards and they made a straight shot into Minneapolis, landing without having to circle once.
I learned the pressure of working with a commodities broker, forecasting floods and other extreme weather events weeks in advance so he could trade the markets ahead of everyone else. “Are you sure parts of Missouri will flood in three weeks? Nobody else is talking about it. Okay, I’m going to put on a trade – you better be right!” And he made a lot of money.
From there I’ve moved on to fielding calls from traders, hedge funds and investors wanting to know how weather will impact businesses in three weeks, six months or a year from now. It’s all high risk, high reward — whether its placing an options trade, investing in a start-up, dabbling in commodities or buying a home.
The type of weather forecasting I do for clients has no room for error – although there are times when things go south. But I’ll see a forecast going bad well before it happens, allowing clients to adapt.
I invite you to join me by reading my weekly long-range weather forecast. There’s an edition for the U.S. designed for everyone’s use. There’s the Business Weather newsletter with worldwide information and commentary for the more sophisticated investor.
We can work together in a private client relationship, too, if you want weather information any time.
I look forward to working with you,
Chris Orr CCM